Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates want to engage with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
